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Wednesday, March 5, 2008

DELEGATES AND DEMOCRATS

(AP Photo/M. Spencer Green)

2025. That is not a science-fiction number from some made up galaxy where the future of man will be at stake. 2025 is the number of delegates needed to win the Democratic Presidential nomination. And some would argue that number is related very intimately with the future of the United States. Barack Obama 1307. Hillary Clinton 1175. Despite her latest resurrection, the New York Senator still trails Mr. Obama in pledged delegates and her lead amongst Superdelegates is narrowing. All this indicates trouble for the DNC in November.

Hillary Clinton, at this point, is well within her rights to stay in the race. Things are tight between her and Senator Obama and too much money has been spent and too much heart has been expended from her to simply walk away now. But there is a problem that Howard Dean, DNC Chairman, has to foresee. In America, race has always played a pivotal position in the national landscape, allowing Americans to be their best and alternately their worst in any given moment in time. To be inspired and bitter. Barack Obama has wisely done his best to preclude the issue of race from his campaign. However, it is sure to make an appearance if the Democratic nomination comes down to a brokered convention in Denver. Should Obama continue to have a lead in delegates, and all mathematical indications point to this probability, then by the rules of the party he should win the nomination. If the Superdelegates for some reason choose to back Hillary Clinton and award her the nomination race jumps center stage, live and on fire. Black America, one of the staunchest supporters of Democratic platforms will be smacked in the face. There would be no way around seeing this occurrence for anything but a qualified black man who played by the rules, being pushed aside to prop up a white American. It is what it is and this is the last thing the DNC or Hillary Clinton should want.

The Republican party does not need nor count on African-American votes to win elections. The Democratic party, at this point in time, does count on that voting block to win office. Hillary Clinton is already losing the black vote by substantial margins in every state with a serious black population; a trend that began in South Carolina after perceived "race talk" from Bill Clinton. How much support could Mrs. Clinton count on from the black electorate if her nomination comes in a back room at the expense of a Mr. Obama who will have more delegates? How much support could Mrs. Clinton procure from Obama supporters of every denomination if she were to receive the Democratic nomination in this way? A vote for Obama is more about wanting a change in political operations than about voting for a black man.

If one truly supports Obama because they believe in his message of changing the ways of doing business in Washington is a vote for Hillary Clinton against John McCain really a vote well spent? Clinton and McCain, lifelong politicians, who based on their current campaigns are well versed in playing the "game" of politics would really be a choice between the lesser of two evils for Obama supporters. In other words, the election in November would be the same election Americans have lived with for decades and would be a bellweather election for black America as well as Obama supporters of all backgrounds.

For African-American's a Superdelegate nominated Clinton would be a clear indicator that a change in political affiliation from Demcorat to Independent is in order. The Democratic party, whose history has origins on the wrong side of slavery and equal rights, would have once again, taken the vote of African-American's for granted by producing a candidate not based on their vote and expecting black support. It would be an indication that black American's must separate from sentiment and embrace a proving of the question, "what will you do for me" from the Democratic Party. For Obama supporters it would be an even clearer indication that change, even though Clinton will no doubt use the term during a possible acceptance speech at the convention, is not what they will be getting. Do they vote, in good conscience, for a candidate nominated by the will of political insiders, because she is better than McCain who has promised a continuation of George Bush's economic and foreign policies? Or do these Obama supporters cast protesting votes for the only candidate of change in the race, Ralph Nader or worse stay home altogether to prove a point. That point being change or else? After eight years of George Bush and the current crisis' America finds itself in, why not sacrifice four more years to McCain? And what about the youth vote that Obama has successfully mined into political engagement? Do they ever return or recover from a brokered convention?

There are many questions for Howard Dean. He had better have the answers or the yellow brick road Democrats were supposed to enjoy on the way to the White House will become a potholed nightmare.

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Wednesday, February 20, 2008

PUNK'D!

Back in the day, on the black tops of elementary school, if one team ran up a lead on the other team of ten to nothing we would call it a "skunk" and the game would be started over; the point being one of mercy for the team that didn't have it going on. They needed a "do over." Well, from February 6th now Barack Obama's campaign has skunked that of Hillary Clinton. She's the kid that had her pants pulled down on the playground. And it has to be embarrassing beyond belief.

Hillary Clinton is a tough lady. She's a politician who has no qualms about being a politician with all of the subterfuge that that can entail. She was a prohibitive favorite to be the Democratic nominee for President not even two months ago. She had the experience. She had the solutions. She had the support of the laborers, women, white America. Now Barack Obama has arrived on the scene with more money, more magnetism, a message that is more bulletproof than Superman. Who wants to be the candidate to tell me "no we can't." Barack Obama is Campaign Santa Claus, offering the gift of hope in a time when American's are cynical about our political structures.

Rudy Guiliani, America's Mayor, implemented a head scratching strategy of relying on Florida to launch his victory march to the Republican nomination. It proved too late and by his third place finish, much too little. Now Hillary Clinton's campaign roars into Ohio and Texas, two big states, that the Senator feels confident will bring her candidacy back from the dead. But unless she has Caesar Romero campaigning for her she faces an uphill climb. She has no momentum. She has no verve. Barack Obama's 18,000 people attended arena speech in Houston, Texas last night pulled every network away from Hillary Clinton's high school bleacher speech in Youngstown, Ohio. It was a case of the average Jane who walks into the party and gets some attention until the dime steps into the door and restores order with longer legs, a brighter smile, and more style. Every time Clinton gives a speech she must be waiting for Ashton Kutcher to pop out and say, "You got punk'd!"

Clinton and John McCain, the probable Republican nominee, have to figure out a way to position their qualifications in the media without being seen by the American populace as the grinch who stole their belief in the possibility of a new type of politics in Washington. A politics that calls for bipartisanship in legislation and for the American people to play their part in building up the country as Obama says, "block by block, county by county, state by state." Obama is on a better roll than a Vegas casino regular.

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Tuesday, February 12, 2008

JULIAN BOND IS WRONG ABOUT THE RIGHT ISSUE


Julian Bond, current NAACP Chairman and veteran Civil Rights activist and politician, is a man certainly worthy of honor and respect. But his stance on the seating of delegates from Florida and Michigan in the Democratic convention is puzzling to say the least. The fact that each state was warned in advance of their decision to go forward with moving up their primaries that the penalty would be harsh does not seem to play a part in Mr. Bond's request. The fact that no candidate in the Democratic race campaigned in either state nor that Mrs. Clinton was the only serious Democratic candidate on the ballot in Michigan.

Mr. Bond rightly says that the citizens of Michigan and Florida, including their populations of color, would be disenfranchised if their voters wishes were not counted and delegates not seated. That begs this question: did Mr. Bond not send a letter detailing these concerns to DNC Chairman Howard Dean at the time he made his decision to penalize Michigan and Florida? It appears late in the day to take up for the populations of Michigan and Florida after the fact. In fairness, how can Mr. Dean seat delegates from Michigan and Florida based upon votes made under the circumstances in which they were cast. One would expect Hillary Clinton to call for those delegates to be seated as she sees her delegate lead wiped out after tonight's Potomac Primary sweep for Barack Obama. But Julian Bond? A man who has fought for justice for over forty years? Where would the justice be for Mr. Obama in this instance?

Chairman Bond's letter correctly spoke of disenfranchised voters. However, what he should have requested,as opposed to delegates being seated from Michigan and Florida based on their January primary votes, is for the DNC to pay for caucuses in Michigan and Florida if not primaries. This way each candidate will have a fair opportunity to compete for Michigan and Florida voters and those states will have delegates seated at the Democratic convention based upon a fairly drawn election.

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Monday, February 11, 2008

WHAT TO WATCH FOR ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL

Barack Obama sweeps through Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington, The U.S. Virgin Islands and Maine over the weekend. Then comes word that Patty Solis Doyle, Campaign Manager for Hillary Clinton, is being replaced by long time Clinton adivsor Maggie Williams. The Clinton campaign spun Doyle's "departure" as one based upon the grind of campaign season, but who doesn't know better? For a campaign manager of Doyle's experience to walk away from a campaign in the middle of the race would be like Tom Brady asking to be pulled out of a game because the Patriots were down. It would not happen. Political advisors and activists are as competitive as professional athletes. They are in it to win it and ,unless there were serious health issues going on, would never just walk away. Which leads to the reason Doyle was replaced.

One, Clinton and her campaign advisors are dissatisfied with their current position and needed a change or at least the appearance of change for rankled supporters or two, Now that Clinton is losing momentum all the stops will be pulled out on Obama and Doyle was not in agreement with the coming strategy. Either way this is not a good situation for Senator Clinton, especially with the Chesapeake Primary fast approaching. However, if she is able to pull out the Virginia primary, which most do not expect, she can take some steam out of Obama's current winning streak and have something to hang her hat on as the campaign motors toward junior Tuesday on March 4th. After all, trying to lessen defeats with disclaimers of expectations, cannot be good for a woman who was the clear front runner in the Democratic race not one month ago.

Meanwhile, Mike Huckabee, continues to put a dent into John McCain's coronation as Republican nominee. His chances of winning enough delegates to seriously derail McCain are less than nil, but his contiually defiant presence illustrates to the country what McCain supporters must be shaken by and that is his support amongst the conservative idealogues in the GOP do not like him and at least in Kansas and Lousiana this past weekend, do not support him overwhelmingly. Huckabee refuses to leave the race citing his presence as giving voters in the coming primaries and caucuses a choice. It is a good point on his part and the longer he's able to win states and stay in the race at best inches him closer to an improbable nomination and at worst, for McCain and ultimately the GOP, embarrasses McCain in front of the nation. If Huckabee drops out of the race and accepts a Vice Presidential offering from McCain, which he says he will not do, then the country will know why.

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Monday, January 14, 2008

MUDDY WATERS BROUGHT TO YOU BY CLINTON AND JOHNSON

And here we go. Politricks as usual. On Meet the Press with Tim Russert, Hillary Clinton defended her comments about Lyndon Johnson and Martin Luther King by saying that obviously Barack Obama's camp had put out the undue criticism that followed. That this criticism had injected race into a campaign that desperately needed to avoid the issue of race or gender. Politically, this is a good strategy on Clinton's part; if it weren't so transparent. No one from the Obama campaign had commented on Clinton saying that the Civil Rights dream of Dr. King would not have been realized without President Lyndon Johnson. That was Congressman James Clyburn from South Carolina, a man with a long history in the civil rights movement, who came out on the record as saying he and others in the black community were offended.

Now for the record, as a black man, I didn't take offense to her comments. Dr. King's influence and impact on American and world society is unrefuteable. However, for the issues that were pressing the black community at the time the movement needed a strong voice in the executive branch. Dr. King, by himself, could not pass legislation. He had no vote in the congress or the senate. Bill Clinton's comments were also misconstrued. Clinton's Fairytale view of Obama's record on the Iraq war very different from him saying that Obama's candidacy itself is a fairytale. Neither of these comments were "racial." However, Mrs. Clinton has now injected the issue of race, purposely. The waters are muddied and won't get any clearer.

Barack Obama's admission to drug use in his earlier years was a pre-emptive strike against what the country is seeing now. Direct questioning from Clinton campaign workers and sneaky assertions from supporters such as Bob Johnson. The same Bob Johnson who lorded over a BET network that single handedly contributed to the exploitation of half naked black and brown women in ninety percent of the music
videos that ran on his network. The same network that at one time offered the black community an array of programming from world news, talk shows, youth programming and entertainment shows that did not solely rely on various strains of rap music.

Bob Johnson is a smart man. He built an empire despite the fact that he allowed it to crumble from bad programming. He is too smart to tell us his veiled reference about Obama "doing whatever he was doing in the neighborhood..." was not a direct inference to Obama's past drug use. He seemingly was saying Obama's past drug use separates him from Clinton's ability to lead the United States. This from a man who has one of the only film company in Hollywood, Our Voices, where black American's can greenlight a project and its first offering is the stupifying comedy, "Who's Your Caddy." A film that is no better than the least of what "white Hollywood" has given to its black constituents. How irresponsible is that? Socially, very irresponsible. Financially, a smart move. Draw in kids with loud characters, loud clothes, loud music under a supposed theme of being misunderstood. The bigger coup is that these kids are the ones who advertisers covet; which leads us back to Mr. Johnson's true interests. Money.

There's an old expression about like birds flocking together. Johnson is out for money. Hillary Clinton is out for the power. And some muddied water is fine as long as their bottom lines are met. I would advise Mr. Johnson and Mrs. Clinton to watch the company they keep because soon, they could be the ones with mud in their eye.

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Monday, June 4, 2007

DEMOCRATIC DEBATE SUNDAY JUNE 3, 2007

Well, well. Last night's debate for the Democratic Presidential potentials alerted me to a couple things. One, I'm not sure if a debate with eight candidates is the most effective means for all, but the top candidates to get their message out. Obama, Clinton and Edwards seem to dominate the proceedings, from questions to answers. Which leads to point number two. The limited chances for those candidates not seen at the top of news polls have to make their case in a sound bite or else.

Former Alaska Senator Mike Gravel's position that the Democrat were more to blame for the Iraqi war than President Bush. This type of statement, while allowing the candidates to state firmly held beliefs and at the same time get "face time" could serve to undermine whichever Democratic nominee comes out of this process. Senator Clinton's tack of minimizing differences between the Democratic candidates while pointing out the disparity between the GOP and the Democrats is a sound one and one that Mr. Edwards and Senator Obama might employ in as insistant a way as Senator Clinton.

If the candidates at the low end of the media radar need to ravage those at the top, it will only damage the Democratic chances in a general election, strengthening a GOP which, at present time has no clear front runner. The small gang of GOP candidates participating in tomorrow night's debate face similar issues due to the size of the proceedings. No clear front runner has emerged and despite the emergence of Romney and McCain's steady hold on the public consciousness there are too many voices to get a strong sense of individual plans and belief.

So I propose a new paradigm in Presidential debating. Identify, through official polls and popular sentiment the top three candidates from each party, Democrat, Repubican, Green or Independent. All other candidates have debates to see who gets to the main stage. Of course there will be issues with fair access to media time and the like, however, it is far from fair for the American public to be given a smorgasboard of candidates that is high in calories, but low in value.

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Thursday, March 8, 2007

OH LAWD!

Oh no she didn't. Oh yes she did. No, she didn't. Yes, she did.

That's right. Hillary Clinton, wife of America's first black President has shown the world she has none of his style, charisma or people skills after a speech down south. Who would have thought the Senator from New York, by way of Illinois would miraculously develop a southern affectation that is less southern and more Huckleberry Finn's Jim or Amos and Andy than any southerner I know in existence.

This cannot be how Ms. Clinton plans on endearing herself to people who think deeper than shallow tactics to endear herself to them. I find it insulting that she would speak at this event as if in a vaudeville act. It wouldn't have been too far off if she had put on black face and sang, in the words of that ole racist spiritual, "MAMMY!"

Senator Clinton in gone with the wind in my book. Until she develops a candidacy that is more telling in terms of strategies and plans and less pandering, insulting and thereby inauthentic; or why don't I just make it plain and spell it out: P-H-O-N-Y. If Miss Clinton does not curb this sentiment that she's been all too capable of manufacturing she can kiss the white house goodbye.

And dat deah is da' troof.

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Thursday, February 22, 2007

HILLATRICKS

Now let me get this straight. David Geffen, in essence, calls Bill Clinton shady and Hillary Clinton unable to galvanize people, therefore throwing his name and financial clout behind Barack Obama and the Clinton campaign team is calling out the Senator from Illinois, demanding he apologize... For statements made by Geffen? Politics are in full effect and we haven't even passed mile one on the marathon to the White House.

Hillary Clinton maintains that she will focus on the issues and not get caught up in the Geffen controversey. But her team, yes the one that she commands is shifting Geffen's comments onto Obama. As Mr. Obama stated, why exactly is he supposed to be apologizing for another man's comments about the Clinton's? They should be after an apology from Geffen himself. But Hillatricks has begun and that program's unstated agenda is to cast Obama as a candidate short on experience, a man who will be a death knell to the DNC's objective of White House attainment based on his black status (Stanley Crouch and Debra Dickerson not withstanding). So shift Geffen's comments off on Obama and put him on the defensive.

Mrs. Clinton was my Senator when I lived in New York. She has long history of controversy on the National and Regional political scenes. After this latest move by her "strategists" that aura of polarization that surrounds her appears to be alive and well. Demanding an apology from Obama for Geffen's comments are clear politics and a harbinger of the brewing fight for America's leadership.

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Wednesday, February 7, 2007

THE POLICY AND THE PLAN

2007 is here, countdown to presidential election 2008 and I dare say
what is shaping up to be one of the most interesting presidential elections
in my young, but growing old, life. Citizens, there are no stand-ins for the parts we will play in this election. We must show up, on cue and off book. Everybody in, everybody in. This play will be legendary for its socio-political hidden meanings, intellectual spawings and political ideas as presented by an all-star cast.

Introducing the main players...

Hillary Clinton, the female candidate as villain, loved and hated equally by the elite and the regular jane's and Moe's from sea to shining sea; former first lady mired in health care,
real estate and infidelity scandals with a wildly popular husband known as Slick Will.

Barack Obama, the Hendrix-esque rock star who is charismatic, seen as "clean" in the regrettable words of Joe Biden. He's the innovator of political speak; in an age of politicking for points with style and little substance, Obama is the forthright candidate who no one has been able to pin down on the substance of his potential platform. If this were a 1970's comic he would be, The Black Candidate.

John Edwards, country boy politician with a core of steel, burnished in the shadows of Vice Presidential nomination in '04. Running as the candidate for the common man, he has already shocked the competition, putting forth a plan for universal health care for all Americans. He's the can-do man, but can he make it do what it do when it's time for votes to be counted and nominations won?

Joe Biden, as foot-in-mouth or the gaffe-man; undressing his chances before they even have an opportunity to catch the carriage that would have turned back into pumpkin further on the election trail. But every story needs a bumbler for comic relief.

John McCain, the tough talking centrist, running as a republican in this era of Republican as "right" and all the way to the "right." Will his support of more troops in Iraq rally the GOP throng to his cause or turn off a sizable segment of Americans Republican and Democrat who have come to see this war as the quicksand it has become?

Rudy Guiliani, former Mayor of New York, socially liberal, but so hard line in terms of policing and urban renewal during his reign over New York that the "Apple's" black and brown citizen's will tell you the man has no people skills. He has not officially declared, but it seems a matter of time. If he does win I won't leave my house in 50 states without I.D. and my hands in plain view.

Mitt Romney, flip-flopper. As Governor of Massachussetts, when it came to abortion, he was for a woman's right to choose, but since he's running for the GOP nomination, he's realized that he had a change of heart. Who is his campaign advisor, John Kerry?

Truthfully, I'm looking forward to seeing if an independent candidate can present enough votes to be blamed for losing another election for the Democratic or Republican candidates. This country needs an infusion outside the main stream. Obama, could be that, to a degree, but is America ready for a black president or what about a woman president? A Republican president who is occupying the same center Democrats tried to occupy in the 2000 and 2004? Will the Democrats willingly return to their roots on the left and be unapologetic in doing so? How many of her issues will America confront in regards to race, gender and class? There is no room on the fence in '08. Stakes are high, war is stuck in netural in Iraq, a conflict with Iran is being courted by "W", global warming is starting to get the world hot under the collar and terrorism and it's various ways and means are as much a threat today as it was after 9/11.

This country of ours is about to change course in ways that will prove historic and possibly transcendent or tragic. Which outcome Americans see will be determined by the effort everyone of her citizens is willing to contribute in this electoral process. Everyone has a part to play in this production. No American can, in good conscience, sit this election out. With so much on the line and a variety of candidates that have not been seen before (a black man and a female with a legitimate chance for success and Republicans who could be called moderates.) it's imperative that each candidate is researched, given audience, and challenged, not followed down party lines, racial lines, gender lines, or other. This election is about the policy and the plan. Fellow citizens, let's go to work.

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