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Monday, February 11, 2008

WHAT TO WATCH FOR ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL

Barack Obama sweeps through Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington, The U.S. Virgin Islands and Maine over the weekend. Then comes word that Patty Solis Doyle, Campaign Manager for Hillary Clinton, is being replaced by long time Clinton adivsor Maggie Williams. The Clinton campaign spun Doyle's "departure" as one based upon the grind of campaign season, but who doesn't know better? For a campaign manager of Doyle's experience to walk away from a campaign in the middle of the race would be like Tom Brady asking to be pulled out of a game because the Patriots were down. It would not happen. Political advisors and activists are as competitive as professional athletes. They are in it to win it and ,unless there were serious health issues going on, would never just walk away. Which leads to the reason Doyle was replaced.

One, Clinton and her campaign advisors are dissatisfied with their current position and needed a change or at least the appearance of change for rankled supporters or two, Now that Clinton is losing momentum all the stops will be pulled out on Obama and Doyle was not in agreement with the coming strategy. Either way this is not a good situation for Senator Clinton, especially with the Chesapeake Primary fast approaching. However, if she is able to pull out the Virginia primary, which most do not expect, she can take some steam out of Obama's current winning streak and have something to hang her hat on as the campaign motors toward junior Tuesday on March 4th. After all, trying to lessen defeats with disclaimers of expectations, cannot be good for a woman who was the clear front runner in the Democratic race not one month ago.

Meanwhile, Mike Huckabee, continues to put a dent into John McCain's coronation as Republican nominee. His chances of winning enough delegates to seriously derail McCain are less than nil, but his contiually defiant presence illustrates to the country what McCain supporters must be shaken by and that is his support amongst the conservative idealogues in the GOP do not like him and at least in Kansas and Lousiana this past weekend, do not support him overwhelmingly. Huckabee refuses to leave the race citing his presence as giving voters in the coming primaries and caucuses a choice. It is a good point on his part and the longer he's able to win states and stay in the race at best inches him closer to an improbable nomination and at worst, for McCain and ultimately the GOP, embarrasses McCain in front of the nation. If Huckabee drops out of the race and accepts a Vice Presidential offering from McCain, which he says he will not do, then the country will know why.

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